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EDITORIAL
Futurists

Jim Coggins

It was a chance conversation. A group of us were discussing a new book by a “futurist”. As one member of the group avidly read excerpts from the book and we discussed the author’s predictions, it occurred to me that “futurist” was a misnomer.

Ever since Alvin Toffler’s Book Future Shock (1970), “futurists” have been making a good living examining trends and predicting what our lives will be like in the future. Some of these predictions have been correct and useful.

However, “futurists” don’t really look at the future. More correctly, they are “presentists”. Their focus is really on the present. They examine present trends, recent inventions and new discoveries, and then make predictions based on the impact these present conditions are likely to have on the future.

For instance, futurists tell us that the Canada Pension Plan could be in trouble because more Canadians were born in the years 1946-64 than in previous or later years. When these “baby boomers” retire, they may be so numerous that those Canadians who are still working and making contributions to the CPP, will have trouble paying enough to support the pensions of those who have retired. It is helpful to understand that the futurists who predict this problem are not looking at the future. They are looking at the relative ages of the current population.

Similarly, those who predict the changes that new generations of computers will bring to our society are not looking at the future but at technology that has already been invented but which has not yet been widely used.

What futurists cannot predict are new inventions, sudden changes and counter-trends. They are often right in their predictions, but certainly not always. There is the fascinating example of the former president of IBM, for instance, who predicted that the worldwide market for personal computers would be less than 10. There is also the example of the 18th-century English bishop who was convinced that the church was in such decline that there would be no one to replace him after he retired – he had not counted on the Wesleyan Revival breaking out. These men were in a position to see and understand present trends, yet failed to accurately predict the future.

Nevertheless, “futurists” do us a great service in helping us prepare for the future. The reason is that while futurists are looking at the present (and studying it in great detail), most of the rest of us are still looking at the past. We think in terms of what we learned in school, what we have experienced and what we learn from others who are also looking at the past.

How unlike futurists (and the rest of us) is God. He truly can see the future because He lives there (as well as in the past and present). Thus, when ancient Judah was invaded by the Assyrian army in the 8th century B.C., futurists would have predicted that Assyria would conquer and destroy Judah, just as Assyria had conquered and destroyed the northern kingdom of Israel. The Assyrian army seemed invincible. Yet God reassured the people of Judah not to worry since the Assyrian army would soon be shattered (2 Kings 19). Sure enough, when the Assyrian army approached Jerusalem, God miraculously destroyed that army. God explained, “Have you not heard? Long ago I ordained it. In days of old I planned it; now I have brought it to pass” (19:25).

In the same era, God went on to tell of a Kingdom that would come centuries later – Jesus’ Kingdom of love which would impact the whole earth. That, too, was fulfilled, and is still being fulfilled.

God knows the future from the past because He is eternal and knows everything. He declares, “I am God and there is none like Me. I make known the end from the beginning, from ancient times, what is still to come” (Isaiah 46:9-10). God also knows the future because He creates it: “My purpose will stand, and I will do all that I please” (Isaiah 46:10).

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Last modified May 4, 2000.

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